What’s Impacting Home Values in Tampa Bay?

The Tampa Bay residential market in 2025 looks a lot calmer compared to the fast-paced surge we saw just a few years ago. Following the pandemic-driven boom of 2020–2022, where prices skyrocketed and homes sold in days, the market has gradually returned to a more balanced rhythm. So far this year, home values have largely stabilized across the region, marking a clear shift from the double-digit appreciation of the past. Homes are taking longer to sell, and inventory has climbed to its highest level in several years—offering buyers more options and leverage. In this post, we’ll break down key 2025 trends across the Tampa Bay region.

2025 Trends in a Glance

As of mid-2025, home values across the Tampa Bay area are holding steady, a noticeable shift from the rapid appreciation seen in previous years. Year-to-date, prices are essentially flat compared to 2024—marking a period of stabilization after several years of sharp growth. In the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro, the median sale price for single-family homes is hovering around $400,000, reflecting a modest year-over-year change between 0% and –2%. (Data from Rocket.com)

Breaking it down by county:

• Hillsborough County (Tampa) recorded a median sale price of $406,287 in June 2025, just a 0.4% increase from the year prior.

• Pinellas County (St. Petersburg/Clearwater) posted a median of $411,800, virtually unchanged from June 2024.

• Pasco County, known for its more suburban appeal, saw a slight increase with a $337,600 median—up approximately 0.9% year-over-year.

Even in areas with minor price gains, the days of fast, double-digit growth appear to be firmly behind us.

This period of stabilization comes on the heels of an extraordinary run-up in values. Tampa Bay home prices surged nearly 60% from pre-pandemic levels, peaking around 2022–2023. But in 2025, the market has clearly hit a plateau. According to local realtors, homes that haven’t been impacted by storm damage or deferred maintenance are seeing little to no year-over-year appreciation—a sign of a more balanced and steady market. In fact, some forecasts at the beginning of the year projected a slight decline of around 2% for Tampa Bay home prices, though the market has held firm so far.

At the same time, sales activity has cooled significantly from the breakneck pace of the pandemic years. Higher interest rates and ongoing affordability challenges have thinned the pool of active buyers. By spring 2025, closed sales were down roughly 15% to 20% year-over-year across much of the region.

• Hillsborough County recorded about 1,850 home sales in May, a 19% drop from the same month in 2024.

• Pinellas County saw a 12% decline in sales.

• Pasco County, despite its population growth, experienced a 17% decrease in sales compared to last year.

This slowdown points to softening demand, as many buyers are either priced out or choosing to wait. Adding to the uncertainty, Tampa ranked among the top U.S. metros for home purchase cancellations this spring—nearly 19% of deals fell through in April 2025. Whether due to inspection issues, rising insurance premiums, or cold feet, it’s clear that buyer confidence has taken a hit. (Data from tamparealtors.org)

Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco County Snapshots

Let’s take a closer look at how Tampa Bay’s three major counties are performing in 2025:

Hillsborough County (Tampa & Surrounding Suburbs)

As the largest and most active market in the region, Hillsborough County’s median single-family home price hovers around $400,000 in mid-2025. This reflects a –2.4% year-over-year decline as of May—confirming that home values have largely leveled off.

• Sales volume is down 19% YoY,

• Median days on market has increased slightly to 37 days (up from ~34 last spring),

• And only about 16% of homes are selling above asking, a far cry from peak bidding war days.

The takeaway? While demand still exists—especially for well-priced, move-in-ready homes—the market has shifted from a strong seller’s market to a much more balanced, neutral environment in 2025.

Pinellas County (St. Petersburg & Clearwater)

Known for its beaches and dense coastal neighborhoods, Pinellas has seen modest price softening. In May 2025, the median sale price was $400,000, down ~1.2% YoY—essentially stable.

• Inventory levels are up ~4% YoY, reaching a five-year high,

• Days on market now average 44 days (vs 40 last year),

• And homes are generally closing at 95–96% of list price after reductions.

Pinellas is trending toward a buyer’s market, driven by rising supply and buyer caution—especially in flood-prone or high-insurance areas, where affordability and risk play a larger role in decision-making.

Pasco County (Northern Suburbs & Exurbs)

Pasco remains the region’s most affordable option, and home values here are still showing slight year-over-year growth. The median price reached ~$352,000 in May, up ~2% from last year, signaling that demand for budget-friendly homes remains steady.

However, signs of cooling are clear:

• Sales are down 18% YoY,

• Median days on market rose to 46 days (up from 34),

• And with a boom in new construction, inventory has grown and buyer options have expanded.

By mid-2025, Pasco has shifted from a seller’s market to a more neutral, buyer-friendly environment, though homes are still selling at around 98% of asking—a sign of reasonable pricing and measured negotiation.

The Big Picture

Across Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco, the residential market in 2025 is clearly cooler and more balanced than in recent years. Price growth has stalled, homes are taking longer to sell, and inventory levels are rising, giving buyers more leverage. The frenzied pace and double-digit appreciation of the pandemic years are behind us—for now. (Data from Redfin & Rocket)

Inventory Rebound is Reshaping the Tampa Bay Market

One of the most significant shifts in Tampa Bay’s housing market this year is the sharp rise in inventory. As of April 2025, there were approximately 13,786 active listings across the metro—up nearly 38% year-over-year. That’s 3.5 times more inventory than in 2021, and about 50% higher than 2015 pre-pandemic levels. Realtors have called it a five-year high, and the data backs that up.

This increase in listings has pushed the months’ supply of homes to 4.2—up from around 3.0 last year. While still just shy of the 5–6 months typically associated with a truly balanced market, Tampa Bay is clearly no longer in the tight seller’s market territory that defined the last few years.

What’s Behind the Inventory Surge?

Several factors are driving this rise:

• Higher mortgage rates have softened buyer demand, leaving more homes on the market longer.

• Sellers and investors—some looking to cash out before any further price adjustments—are adding to the available supply.

• New construction in suburban areas, particularly in counties like Pasco, is contributing to the inventory bump.

• New listings rose 10% year-over-year in April, even as sales slowed—fueling the overall increase in homes on the market.

By summer 2025, total inventory remained 27% higher than last year, putting active listing levels roughly on par with 2018–2019.

What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

This inventory rebound has given buyers more breathing room. In contrast to the frenzy of recent years:

• Roughly 72% of homes are now selling below asking price.

• The days of “act fast or lose out” are fading—buyers can shop around, negotiate, and take their time.

• Final sale prices are averaging 95%–98% of list, depending on location and condition.

On the seller side, expectations are shifting. About 40–43% of active listings are seeing price reductions before going under contract. Pricing competitively is now critical, as competition has intensified.

Some potential sellers are still sitting on the sidelines due to the “rate lock” effect—reluctant to trade in ultra-low mortgage rates for today’s 6–7% loans. However, since buyer demand has cooled more than new listings have dropped, total inventory continues to climb.

Hurricane Aftermath Adding to Listings

Another contributor to the growing inventory in 2025? The lingering impact of the 2024 hurricane season. Severe storms left behind a mix of damaged properties, insurance headaches, and tough decisions for homeowners—especially in coastal and flood-prone neighborhoods.

Some homeowners may have decided to list instead of repair, particularly when facing:

• Denied or delayed insurance claims

• Costly repairs that exceeded FEMA’s 50% Rule thresholds (FEMA 50% Rule Services)

• Rising insurance premiums making the property unaffordable

• Or simply the emotional toll of repeated storm risks

In many cases, investors or out-of-town owners who previously rented out properties have also opted to sell, especially in areas with escalating maintenance or insurance issues. These listings, often needing work or priced below market, have added to the active inventory pool.

While the market overall is cooling due to economic forces, the hurricane-related turnover has further accelerated supply, particularly in vulnerable pockets of Pinellas and southern Hillsborough.

Insurance Costs & Hurricane Impacts: A New Reality for Tampa Bay Real Estate

Rising insurance costs and recent storm activity have become major forces reshaping the Tampa Bay housing market in 2025. These factors are no longer background noise—they’re front and center in pricing, demand, and decision-making for both buyers and sellers.

Florida Now Leads the Nation in Insurance Premiums

Florida currently holds the highest average homeowners insurance rates in the country—nearly 5× the national average. Tampa Bay residents are feeling it more than most. Years of escalating claims, insurer exits, and frequent hurricanes have pushed premiums sharply higher. Many buyers now find themselves priced out not by the home price, but by the insurance quote.

Even for current owners with fixed-rate mortgages, the financial strain is growing. Premiums can jump 20–50% in a single year, creating what experts call “payment shock.” Suddenly, a previously affordable home becomes difficult to carry, especially when paired with property taxes and maintenance costs.

Storms Have Left Their Mark

The 2023–2024 hurricane seasons added pressure. In late 2024, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton brought widespread rain, surge, and localized flooding to parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. While not catastrophic market-wide, these storms left a noticeable footprint.

• Storm-damaged neighborhoods are now selling at discounted prices, dragging down county-wide averages.

• Flood-prone areas are seeing higher DOM, slower sales, and more hesitant buyers.

• In some cases, values in FEMA high-risk zones (AE/VE) have dropped 5–10% year-over-year, while homes on higher ground or newer construction have retained or even gained value.

For example, in St. Pete’s Shore Acres, values fell ~7% YoY post-flooding, while inland Kenwood (Zone X) saw prices rise ~5% as buyers prioritized elevation and safety.

Buyers Are Getting Savvier About Risk

Today’s buyers are asking tougher questions. Elevation certificates, flood zone designations, and insurance quotes are now part of the buying process from day one. Under FEMA’s new Risk Rating 2.0, many Pinellas homeowners are seeing 20–70% increases in flood insurance premiums—adding hundreds to monthly costs.

This shift has created a two-speed market:

• Homes in lower-risk zones, with newer roofs or hurricane-rated features, are still commanding strong prices and multiple offers.

• Older homes in flood zones or with deferred maintenance often require price cuts or seller concessions just to stay competitive.

The Bigger Picture: Climate Risk & Market Confidence

A 2025 Zillow analysis estimated $492 billion in real estate across Tampa Bay is at risk from hurricanes and sea-level rise. While this doesn’t imply an imminent crash, it does mean that insurers, lenders, and buyers are watching closely—and adjusting their behavior accordingly.

In response, Florida has implemented stronger building codes, including roofing requirements and storm-hardening measures. Newer, elevated homes built to these standards are:

• Selling faster

• Retaining value

• Sometimes even commanding a premium over older homes in the same neighborhood.

For sellers, transparency is key: disclosing past storm impacts and providing updated insurance estimates can help avoid surprises during negotiation. For homeowners, proactive steps like wind mitigation, roof upgrades, and flood-proofing can not only reduce premiums but improve resale value.

Final Thoughts

Selling a home is a major financial decision. A pre-listing appraisal is a smart, proactive step that sets you up for success—especially in an uncertain or fast-moving market. At MJS Appraisals & Real Estate Consultants, we’re committed to delivering accurate, timely, and unbiased residential appraisals throughout the Tampa Bay market.

MJS Appraisals – Providing Trusted Property Valuation Services in Tampa Bay & Surrounding Areas.

Michael Scarpa

State Certified Residential Real Estate Appraiser

MScarpa@mjsrealestateservices.com

813.609.2321